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The Ukraine War - A Russian Offensive?

3/5/2024

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Signs of a Coming Offensive

After their recent gains in Avdivka and all along the Donets, Zhapoeizhia and Kherson frontlines the Russians appear to be pausing. Youtube commentators (Such as The Military Summary Channel) say that the Ukrainians have succeeded in stabilizing the front. I suspect, though, that the reduction in Russian advances in recent days has less to do with Ukrainian reserves and more to do with Russian intentions. My feeling is that the Russian troops are under orders not to completely conquer the villages and towns they are currently fighting within. Why? Because the Russians are planning a big offensive as soon as the mud of spring (the so called Rasputitsa) has dried out enough to support tank movement. The Russians do not want this big offensive to be bogged down by minefields as the Ukrainian offinsive was. They are hoping to storm along roads that have not been mined and their plan to keep the roads open is as follows:
Firstly, the Russians use this time before The Offensive to fight their way across defensive minefields and trenches into frontline towns and villages. They then pretend that they are struggling to advance further so that the Ukrainians stay in the town and do not abandon it, because if they abandoned it they would sow minefields behind them as they left. If the Ukrainians are still fighting in the town or village, they leave the supply roads to that settlement open so that they can supply their troops. The Russians are hoping to maintain this status quo until everything is ready and the order is given to advance on all fronts, at which point they hope to quickly overwhelm the remaining part of the settlement and then dash along the still open road. If they can do this in enough directions at once the hope would be that the Ukrainians would not be able to send enough reserves to all axes and that a significant breakthrough in one or more places is therefore made more likely.  
My proof that this is the Russian plan comes in two parts. First, is the fact that the Russians have control of a foothold or more in far more villages and towns at the moment than has been normal previously. They are partly controlling Novomykhilivka, Pobieda, Heorhiivka, Krasnohorivka, Nevelsky, Pervomaiske, Tonenke, Orlivka, Berdychi, Ivanivske, Bodhanivka, Vasiukivka, Sakko-I-Vansetti, Spirne, Bilhorivka, Terny, Makkivka (according to some sources), Novoselivka, and Synkivka.
My second proof is the unusual events that occurred in Robotyne, where the Russians having conquered half the village suddenly withdrew. What prompted this sudden withdrawal? Could it possibly have been the simple fact that the Ukrainians were withdrawing? I suspect that when that sector's commanders saw that the Ukrainians had decided to withdraw rather than fight for the rest of the village there was sudden consternation. They needed the road between Orlivka and Robotyne to be free of mines if they were going to have any hope of charging along it to take Orlivka. I suspect an order was quickly given, "Pull back, now !!"


More on the directions of attack in the next blog



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    The author, Gavin Hickey, has lived in Indonesia, The United Kingdom and France and currently resides in his native Australia.  He has been a lifelong student of global history.

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