The Big Move in the Caucuses

In the conflict between Russia and the US the next big play to look out for will take place in the Caucuses, that little band of mountainous countries that lie between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea.

On the 2nd of April, amidst heavy fighting, Azerbaijan suddenly seized some of the territory formerly held by Armenians in the long frozen conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. This outbreak of violence between these two small countries should set alarm bells ringing for anyone who is watching the greater conflict between Russia and The West.
Ever since the US and Russia fell out over Ukraine, The West has been trying to damage Russia's economy and a key component of this has been trying to reduce Europe's dependence on Russian gas and oil. One arm of this effort has involved trying to locate an alternative source for oil and gas pipelines into Europe, and the new source which was found was Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan has large reserves of cheaply acquirable oil and gas and is close enough to Europe to make pipelines to Europe feasible. Even better, Azerbaijan was formerly part of the Soviet Union, so if The West could draw it into its alliance it would be another thorn in the side of Russia.
Naturally, Russia has an interest in seeing that The West does not succeed in its aims.
Azerbaijan already has some pipelines running to the west. They pass through Georgia, another former member of the Soviet Union that has been drawn to The West. Russia no longer controls Georgia, but they do have troops in the breakaway region of South Ossetia whose territory points like a dagger from the north into the heart of the Georgian state. The southern border of South Ossetia lies not far from where the oil and gas pipelines run. Recently the border posts on the southern border of South Ossetia moved further south, effectively adding extra territory to South Ossetia and bringing the border so close to the oil and gas pipelines that they could now be easily shelled by artillery stationed in South Ossetian territory. Obviously, a cynical observer might conclude that this border shifting is part of a move by Russia and its ally to exert influence over Azerbaijan's ability to export its hydrocarbons to Europe. Specifically it lets the Europeans know that Russia has the ability to stop those pipelines at any moment by having the South Ossetians reignite their frozen conflict with the Georgian state.
That is all well and good for Russia, but pipelines can be moved further south. It would be much better for Russia if it could actually exert enough influence in its former satellites to control the flow of Azerbaijani hydrocarbons entirely. 

Russia has the military might to invade either of its two tiny neighbours Georgia or Azerbaijan, but Russia's reputation in the world would be damaged if it invaded a neighbour for purely economic/geopolitical reasons. Really, Russia would need a more acceptable reason before it could send its troops into a neighbour.
But wouldn't it be good fortune for Russia if such a reason did suddenly appear?

If warfare broke out between Azerbaijan and Russia's strategic ally Armenia then that would constitute a viable reason for Russia to intervene in Azerbaijan.  Who could blame Russia for defending her ally, particularly if Azerbaijan was the country to attack first?

So now we have a situation which has suddenly arisen where Azerbaijan has seized some territory from Armenian forces, what will happen now?
Will the conflict escalate and lead to Russia regaining control of its hydrocarbon rich former satellite by military means?
Or will a more subtle game be played where Russia achieves its control over Azerbaijan's hydrocarbons by threats and promises or is even defeated in securing its interests by a combination of other players and its own weaknesses? Or will nothing much happen, allowing things to go back to the status quo which existed before the attack?

Indicators that the Russians have been manouvering to make a play in the Caucuses:
One might say the Russians won't attack the Azerbaijanis; on the contrary the Russians have been particularly friendly to the Azerbaijani's of late. I would reply to this that one way for the Russians to get the Azerbaijanis to make the error of attacking Armenia is to let them think that the Russians were now better friends with them than the Armenians. One could reference the good relations between Iraq and the US which are said to have encouraged Saddam Hussein into thinking that the Americans would not defend Kuwait if he invaded it.

I would also point out that until 2nd April one might have been wondering why the Russians had decided to suddenly draw down in Syria, when everything was going so well for them there. They were leading their side to victory and making the United States appear ineffectual. One might also have wondered why they did not make greater overtures to the Kurds who would have seemed their natural allies.

Well here we have a good answer to both questions.
The Russians may have decided to start withdrawing from Syria so that they would be ready to focus their forces on Azerbaijan if needed. And they may not have played the Kurdish card in Syria because they wanted to keep it in reserve as a threat against Turkey to keep them from coming to the defence of their ethnic cousins in Azerbaijan.

Predicting what will happen in the Caucuses over the coming months is not the aim of this article. All that this article wishes to do is draw attention to the fact that the conditions have been set up for a big Russian move in the Caucuses, and what may seem like an insignificant sideshow at the moment could become a crucial test in the ongoing Russia/US face off.