Predictions for the Russian Offensive in Ukraine (As promised in my last blog)

So, my predictions for the Russian offensive.
I need to preface this though by saying that I do not know the situation on the ground in Ukraine anywhere near as well as the Russian Military Commanders. There is much information before them that I do not have. My guesses are simply based on widely publicized information about the situation on the ground. They may suffer from a lack of critical information. That said, my predictions, based on my limited knowledge, are as follows: 

1. The Russians will attack in all new and existing frontlines simultaneously in order to exceed Ukraine’s ability to throw effective reserves at each attack, thereby giving the best opportunity that at least one direction of attack should make a breakthrough.
2. The main new front/axis of attack will be entering the Kharkiv region between Kupiansk and Vovchansk (the Donets River). They will push south hoping to envelop the Ukranian lines that are facing the Russians in Luhansk Oblast. They will be seeking to use the Siversky Donets river as a protection on their western flank while the eastern flank attacks the Ukrainian positions. The role of the Russian forces in Ukraine will be to pressure the Ukrainians from the East, but the main attack will come from the west. Any attack from the East will have to overcome well established defensive positions and then if they make it to the Oskil river the Ukrainians have prepared positions waiting to help them defend the West bank of this river. So, it will be much better to attack from the west, attacking the Ukrainian defenses from behind and then being able to use those self-same defenses to hold the Oskil river line against the Ukrainians trapped between its eastern bank and the Russian lines further east. Of course, the Ukrainians will know that this move could trap all of their forces on the Luhansk Front so they will do their best to stop the Russians on, or near, the northern border. I think, however, that this is the direction to which the Russians will devote their best resources. Why? Because destroying the Ukrainian Army is more important than taking large grabs of territory. If the Russians can destroy the Ukrainian Army then they can take as much territory as they wish. If they take a big grab of poorly defended territory but leave the Ukrainian Army largely intact then they risk having that territory and others removed from them later in the war. Destroying the Ukrainian Army will therefore be priority number one and the attack with the greatest potential to deal it a severe blow is the one outlined above, so I think the Russians will invest many forces into it despite its predictability. Also, if it does not come off then they can claim that they were just trying to create a buffer zone along the border as they have previously stated they would. So they can claim a sort of victory even if they only make it a few kilometres across the border.
3. The second area of focus will be the Donetsk Front. Here they will attack almost everywhere. If destroying the Ukrainian Army is the goal, here is where it is most concentrated. Liberating Donetsk though has long been a stated goal of ‘The Special Military Operation’ so politically any ground taken in Donetsk Oblast is a public relations win. Within the oblast, though, I do not think they are planning a frontal assault of Vulehdar. They have lost too many troops trying that previously. Vulehdar will definitely be a key target, but my thinking is that they will try to surround it by moving north from Pavlivka, Shevchenko and/or Novomaiorske to block its western flank and moving west from Solodke and Novomykhailivka to cut it off from the north. It also seems unlikely that they will attack Niu York and Toretsk directly as the contact line facing these two urban centres was first established in 2014 and has probably been built up over the years to be extremely difficult to fight through. It is far more likely that they will endeavour to take these areas by encirclement, pushing north from Avdivka and west from Bakmut/Artemovsk.
4. The third region of attack will be between Kharkhiv and Sumy. Such an attack, if it pushes deep could threaten either city with encirclement and so give the Russians options. If the Ukrainians look like they have Kharkhiv too well defended then the Russians can potentially swing north and grab Sumy. Naturally though, Kharkhiv, as Ukraine’s second largest city and former capital, would be the preferred target. If the attack does not make much ground, once again, the Russians will be able to claim that they were just intending to create a buffer zone along the northern section of the Kharkhiv border, so once again they will be able to claim victory with just a few kilometres captured.
5. Finally, the Zhaporizhia front will also be a direction of attack. The Russians will endeavour to dash forward from Robotyne to Orikhiv and will also attempt to drive up through Stepnohirsk to Zhaporizhia City. This attack is likely to be the least resourced and the least sustained. If the initial push succeeds, and a breakthrough is made, then the Russians may well send more resources to Zhaporizhia, but if the initial charge is unsuccessful then it is likely the Russians will be content to simply retake any land lost to the Ukrainian offensive and then sit on their hands. The reason being that they have established very strong defensive lines where they are and that as the next Ukrainian Offensive, if there is one, is likely to want to head through the land bridge to the sea, they might prefer to present the same tested and successful defenses rather pushing forward at great cost only to occupy less defensible positions when the expected assault comes and losing yet more troops as a result.

 
Northern Attack Routes
It seems unlikely at this stage that the Russians would also attack from the northern Ukrainian border in the next few months, so I will save analysis of these prospective invasion routes for a later blog.