​Battleground Malaysia

If we stand back and look at the map of Asia we see three giants, China, India and Indonesia. The most strategic ground between them is Malaysia and ‘lo and behold’ the population of Malaysia is made up of Malays (the same ethnicity as Indonesians) Chinese and Indians. All three countries would like to control this territory. The Europeans sailed from the other side of the world to do just that and fought wars amongst themselves for the benefit.  Malacca, Malaysia’s most notable city of 500 years ago, has a history of having been ruled by the Portuguese, then the Dutch and then the English. The Europeans were interested in Malaysia because it controlled the shortest shipping route between China and India, through the Malacca Strait, and that strait was at the same time the safest route into the riches of the Indonesian archipelago.

All three of the Asian giants have large populations of their ethnic brethren living in Malaysia. Can anyone see the potential for conflict?

All sides already have form.
 
The Chinese
Malays/Indonesians populate the lands on both sides of the Malacca Strait, so one might assume that they were its typical rulers prior to the arrival of the European naval empires. Malacca’s pre-European history, however, centres around the tales of the great warriors Hang Tua and Hang Jabat and of the Babanonya – the princess and her 100 handmaidens who all arrived from the sea. All are now thought by many to have been ethnically Chinese; Hang being a form of Han. Thus suggesting that Malacca’s heyday as the dominant city on the Straits was a period when it was actually ruled by a Chinese elite. Certainly, there is no doubt that Chinese traders have been long established both in Malacca and throughout the Strait's major port cities.

A more striking example of the Chinese’s ability to gain influence in the Straits is Singapore. In 1800 Singapore was nothing but a swampy island with a few Malay villages on it. Sir Stamford Raffles, the British colonial administrator par excellence, however, identified it as the perfect spot to establish the Straits' next power city. The Chinese flooded in and became the dominant population of the island, then, after Malaysia’s independence from Great Britain, they broke away and formed their own independent country. Consequently, Singapore is a clear case of Malay-ruled territory being taken over and subsequently ruled by Chinese.
 
The Indians
India too has an ongoing history of involvement in Malaysia. Under the British, Malaysia was ruled from Calcutta, but the most significant influences of India in Malaysia are, like the Chinese, not the result of any officially stated government policy, but rather the result of their people’s movement (whether that be irrespective of, or as a result of, specific government policies is a matter for another article). The potential for the ‘innocent’ migration of economic immigrants to have nation changing effects has already been seen in the case of Singapore, but an Indian example can be seen in the shape of the Tamils. An Indian ethnic group, hailing from Tamil Nadu, the Tamils, migrated to Sri Lanka, the island nation which was just across the Palk Straits from their homeland. Initially, it was poor fishermen who arrived, setting up villages on the coast. The indigenous Sinhalese allowed them to stay. With the passage of years and the growth of their population, however, the Tamils eventually declared their own independent republic in the north of Sri Lanka and a decades long civil war ensued before the Tamil republic was eventually crushed. In this case, the Indian (Tamil) immigrants were unsuccessful in establishing an independent state for themselves, unlike the Chinese of Singapore, but during the long years of civil war many of those Tamils fled the fighting to settle in Malaysia, where they are now the largest of the Indian minorities. An ethnic group with a record of migrating into an area and then trying to establish their own Independence might certainly be considered a threat by the indigenous Malay population.
 
The Indonesians/Malays
So, the Chinese have taken Singapore and the Indians bear watching, but for most of the second half of the 20th century I would say the Malays have been the ones gaining ground. While it is true that Singapore gained its independence in this period. It is the case that the massive influx of Chinese to Singapore occurred under British rule. British rule was also friendly to the immigration of Indians into Malaysia. Since Malaysia gained Independence from Britain in 1957, the welfare and relative demographics of the native Malay populations have risen significantly vis-à-vis their two large immigrant communities. Indeed, part of the reason why Malaysia let Singapore go relatively amicably was because the Malays knew that if Singapore stayed in their federation then the immigrant populations would out-number the Malays. By letting Singapore leave they ensured that they would at least be able to maintain control of what was left of the country through a democratic majority. Ever since, the Malay led government of Malaysia has been pursuing policies which ‘positively discriminate’ in favour of Malay citizens. These policies have succeeded in growing the wealth and numbers of the Malay population. Malaysia has also prospered economically, such that it now has a GDP per capita which is much higher than all of its three neighbouring giants. Such success could mean that if there were ever a federation of Indonesia and Malaysia it may well be led by Malaysia rather Indonesia. That uniting the Malays into one homeland is an idea with a serious political following has been known since Indonesia's President Sukarno endeavoured to make the dream a reality, by force, during the period from 1963 to 1966. A Malaysian led initiative would be more likely to succeed peacefully, however, given that until now it is Malaysia who has resisted the idea through fear of complete domination from Jakarta. That such a possibility is increasingly likely is due to Malaysia's growing wealth, which gives it an increasingly strong position vis-a-vis its much larger neighbour: a time might come when Malaysian politicians might think that some sort of federation might present more opportunities than risks.
 
The state of play
If we stand back and look at the map, particularly an ethnic or demographic map, we see that the pieces are on the board and they are changing position (the game is in play). The Malays/Indonesians (a nation of chess lovers) are ahead, but everyone is still in the game.
In a sense there is a sort of ‘Cold War’ going on in Malaysia in the form of a battle between ethnicities for influence and power. On the ground the battle is waged every day through such acts as the Chinese sending their children to private Chinese schools rather than government ones and Indian communities turning local caves into Hindu shrines.
 
Could there be a ‘hot’ conflict in Malaysia?
Certainly, the conditions exist in Malaysia for the slow fuse of ethnic tensions to be ignited into a ‘hot’ conflict. All that is needed is a spark. And the great danger of a 'hot' conflict in Malaysia is that it has the potential to draw in all three Asian giants.
 
Potential sparks
Both the Chinese and Indian ethnicities are already positively-discriminated against in Malaysia. The discrimination has generally been accepted as ‘positive’ by the world and many Malaysians on account of the fact that when it began Malays were by far the poorest and most under-privileged segment of Malaysian society. On average they may still be less wealthy than the Indian and Chinese communities, but at what point does 'positive discrimination' become just 'discrimination'? At what point do discriminated-against minorities feel that enough is enough? Will there be a point in the future where large, globally significant countries like China and India decide that they can no longer abide having Malaysia discriminate against their ethnic diaspora?
At the other end of the stick, could an increase in Malay nationalism lead to a Pan Malay movement that would seek to unify Malaysia with the other Malay homeland of Indonesia? How would the large minorities of Chinese and Indians react to such an event? Would such an event lead to more, or less, discrimination.
 
China’s push into the South China Sea shows a growing willingness on behalf of China to make plays for increased control of its important seaways? Where does that end? There have been similarities drawn between China’s current policies and the US moves from the 19th century to control the Carribean Sea. Those moves ended in US control of the Panama Canal, the World’s 3rd most important sea route. The Malacca Straits are the World’s second most important sea route. The USA controls the Panama Canal but does not directly control Panama so the Chinese may not need to physically control Malaysia, but the US does involve itself in Panamanian affairs; the deposition of Manuel Norriega being one notable example.
 
In conclusion
Malaysia is already an ethnic battleground, albeit a very civilized one at the moment. There are, however, shifts in power and influence amongst the main ethnic groups in Malaysia and with each ethnic group having a giant nation at their back the potential for conflict, even large scale international warfare exists.

The Malays have the homeground advantage and recently the game has been on their terms, but Singapore demonstrates that there have been periods of history where they have lost ground, literally, demonstrating that their current control cannot be taken for granted.

China has made a recent aggressive surge into the nearby waters of the South China Sea, and there are suggestions that the currently embattled prime minister of Malaysia, Abdul Razak, might be susceptible to taking Chinese money and support if it helps him stay in power.
​
Meanwhile, India, calmly sitting back, might be the one to win influence by not making enemies.

My feeling is that Indonesia, or some Malay based power, will be the ultimate winner in Malaysia, so long as they have better than competent leadership (certainly not a given) but the real question is not so much who will win but whether the battle to control the strategic Malay Peninsular might turn violent, leading to the involvement of one, or more, of the Asian Giants in an armed conflict.