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Positioning for an Energy Crisis

1/8/2020

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Do you see what I am seeing?
Many in the media are talking down the possibility of a war between the USA and Iran. "Iran does not want a war," they say, "They know they can't match the US." Maybe so, but who says it is Iran who gets to choose?
Since the 'Shale Revolution' which made the US effectively independent of Middle Eastern oil, as recently as during the Trump Presidency, the US no longer has to worry about Iran being able to shut down its energy supply. Indeed, if a war in the Persian Gulf shut down oil production in the region that would just strengthen the US vis-a-vis all of its economic competitors whose production costs would suddenly increase, if indeed they were able to maintain much production at all.
So what is to stop the US going after Iran's nuclear program? We all know that the US doesn't want the Iranians getting nuclear weapons; not when Iran's regime considers the US to be 'The Great Satan'.
In the past the US had to tread carefully as a result of their dependence on Gulf Oil; that dependence no longer exists.
The logic is clear.
Perhaps the US president does not want a war, but there are certainly some Hawks in the US defense establishment who might think now is a good time to authorize some aggressive actions that might inspire retaliation of the sort that makes heavy-handed responses hard to avoid for even the most pacifist presidents.
There are certainly signs that some foreign powers are preparing for a Persian Gulf Crisis.
Suddenly, Japan has some naval strength positioned in the vicinity of the Persian Gulf. This is very unusual for Japan. Could it be that Gulf oil dependent Japan is making sure it has naval power in place to convoy out any of its oil tankers if fighting breaks out?
Then there is Turkey. Suddenly, out of the blue, Turkey's parliament has decided to authorize troop deployment to hapless, but oil rich Libya.
Now, the Libyan civil war has been going on since 2011 so one could be forgiven for asking of Turkey, 'Why now?'
Could it be that Turkey is foreseeing the possibility of a loss of oil imports from the nearby Gulf States and is consequently seeking to put itself in a position where it can use its considerable military to secure access to Libya's oil reserves?

Perhaps Iran and the US will sort out their differences without much disruption to Persian Gulf oil supplies, some however appear to be making sure that they are prepared for a potential energy crisis.
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    The author, Gavin Hickey, has lived in Indonesia, The United Kingdom and France and currently resides in his native Australia.  He has been a lifelong student of global history.

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