Angela Merkel’s accepting of one million refugees – act of compassion or geopolitical strategy move?

So Angela Merkel said that Germany would take one million refugees and everyone thought ‘that woman is very compassionate,’ and perhaps she is, but when one looks at the decision geo-strategically one finds that there could be other motives behind her decision.
 
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Germany's Struggle
Since its unification in 1871 Germany has been engaged in a Geopolitical struggle with the other core European Powers: France, The United Kingdom and Russia. These four core powers, or empires as they were initially, have for the last 150 years been constantly engaged in the attempt to improve their positions vis-à-vis the others. The Austro-Hungarian Empire also used to be involved in this game, but it was torn apart following the First World War, a reminder of how deadly the game can be. Turkey, initially in the guise of the Ottoman Empire, was also a player in this game, but as they were almost always an ally of the Germans rather than a competitor I will put them on one side for now.
 
So, if we look at what impact Germany’s decision to take one million immigrants has had on its three traditional rivals we start to see the possibility that there might have been more reasons than altruism to recommend this course of action to Germany’s leader.
 

To begin with The United Kingdom.
Less than a month ago we had the dramatic vote for Britain to leave the European Union (EU). Immigration played a major role in that decision and the vote was close. It could certainly be argued that Germany’s sensationalised decision to accept a million refugees helped to convince Britons to choose to leave the European Union.

How does this act affect the comparative power of Britain vis-à-vis Germany?
On the British side of the equation there are many saying that Britain’s economy will suffer by the decision and that the country might fragment with Scotland and Northern Ireland splitting off. Certainly there is a chance of all of this, which would mean the virtual destruction of one of Germany’s tradition rivals. These doomsday predictions, however, may be mightily overstated. I, for one, can envisage Britain enhancing its influence in the world as a result of the Brexit. Whether or not the UK benefits from leaving the EU, though, there is no doubt that their leaving has left Germany in a stronger position within the European Union. Germany was already the strongest country within the European Union, but it could be challenged by Britain and France. With Britain out Germany’s power within the EU immediately grows.
 

What about France?
With Britain out of the EU the only other powerful country left in the EU other than Germany is its old rival; France.

What impact has Ms Merkel’s decision had on the relative strength of France vis-à-vis Germany?
Well, it could be argued that by accepting so many refugees Germany is being seen as a country that is sympathetic to Muslims and it could be argued that Germany has been cultivating this perception since accepting its first influx of Turkish immigrants through its ‘guest worker’ program back in the 60s. So how does this help Germany in its geopolitical game vis-à-vis the other European powers?
 
It should be noted that Germany, to this point, has not suffered from the mass slaughter Islamic terrorist attacks that have hit the UK and particularly France and with this grand gesture to further bolster Germany’s pro-Islamic credentials it could be expected that whatever increase in Islamic terrorism might occur following the decision its targets will be countries other than Germany. France for example is living under a state of emergency due to the frequency of mass casualty Islamic Terror attacks, so it could be argued that Merkel’s decision has contributed to shielding Germany from Islamic terrorist attacks while undermining the civil security of its rival France. Indeed, with the latest attack in Nice horrifying the French people, the chance of a National Front victory at the next election increases and that could lead to a Frexit. A situation that would leave Germany as the sole remaining power within the EU; a situation which would be something akin to Germany taking control of all of the minor countries of Europe; a massive geopolitical advantage to Germany if it should come to pass.

 
And now for the third rival; Russia.
Unlike the others Russia is not in the EU, but Merkel’s decision does have an indirect affect on Russia too. For the past 150 years Germany’s most reliable ally in containing Russia has been Turkey. Russia’s desire to gain control of the sea passage between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean poses an existential threat to the Turkish State and consequently Turkey, or the Ottoman empire as it was then, allied with Germany in the First World War and avoided joining the Allies against Germany in the Second World War until after the result was a forgone conclusion.
By accepting the one million refugees Germany took the pressure off its old ally Turkey, who was the main transit route for the refugees, and it thereby reaffirmed its bond of goodwill with a country that was at the time involved in a military standoff with Russia over the use of its air force in Syria.
 
So, in conclusion, it can be seen that by making her sensational announcement of accepting one million refugees Angela Merkel was taking a step which enhanced Germany’s geo-strategic position vis-à-vis all of its traditional rivals for power within Europe while at the same time appealing to all those who support ‘compassion politics’ both within the western world and abroad.
For those who doubt that the German chancellor and her advisors could have had anything but humanitarian concerns in mind when they made their decision, I would ask you to pose yourself the following questions:
“Was Angela Merkel aware that Britain was going to have a referendum on whether to leave the EU in the near future?”
“Was Angela Merkel aware that immigration would be a significant issue in that referendum?”
“Was Angela Merkel aware that her acceptance of one million, mostly Islamic refugees into the EU via Germany, from where they might later move to Britain or anywhere else they wanted, would be likely to strengthen Britain’s Leave campaign?”
I would posit that the answer to all of the above questions is “Yes.”
 
It should also be known that, tied in with its alliances with Turkey, Germany has a long history with the idea of using Islam as a weapon. In the first instance this was as a tool to be used against the colonial empires of Britain, France and Russia. On the outbreak of the First World War the Germans even established in Berlin a ‘Bureau of Jihad’ “to produce pan-Islamic propaganda to instigate revolts in French North Africa, Russian Central Asia, and, the jewel in the crown, British India with its 80 million muslims.”[1]
The German Legationsrat and friend of Kaiser Willhelm II who oversaw the establishment of this Bureau, Baron Max von Oppenheim, believed that “In the future Islam will play a much larger role…. [T]he striking power and demographic strength of Islamic lands will one day have a great significance for European states.”[2]
Given that its building of the Berlin to Bagdad railway and its support for the Ottoman Empire in its decay form some of the prouder narratives of German foreign policy over the last 150 years one might find it surprising if Ms Merkel’s advisors were not aware of this heritage. Indeed, one might even note that up until the end of the First World War Syria and Iraq were provinces of the Ottoman Empire, Germany’s erstwhile ally of the day. So in accepting the Syrian and Iraqi refugees one might even wonder if Ms Merkel was not in fact making a nod to Germany’s history and reaffirming an old bond of goodwill between her country and the peoples of that region.
 
In conclusion
For those who think that I might be drawing a very long bow in these speculations, I will concede that you might be right. It is the case that although one might have knowledge of enough facts to uncover the criminal in a detective novel it does not automatically follow that you will put the pieces together correctly to figure out what happened. Similarly, though Angela Merkel knew enough independent facts to forsee the effects of her decision upon her three main European rivals, it does not necessarily follow that she came to those realisations or that they were her primary reasons for acting.
Nonetheless, I think it has been a very enlightening exercise to analyse her action in terms of the effects it would have on Germany's geopolitical rivals.
 
 


[1] Eugene Rogan, The Fall of the Ottomans, Penguin, 2016, p.48

[2] Oppenheim quoted by McMeekin, The Berlin-Bagdad Express, 27, 91 as cited in Eugene Rogan, The Fall of the Ottomans, Penguin, 2016, p.48