A Brave King – Part One - Analysis

Apparently Saudi Arabia has just reached an agreement with France to send three billion dollars worth of military equipment to Lebanon to fight Islamic State.  This follows on from the events of March in which Saudi Arabia put together a coalition of 10 countries to launch airstrikes on Yemen; an engagement which is ongoing and reported to include artillery bombardments over their shared border. It appears very possible that Saudi Arabia could even send troops over the border to engage in conventional ground-based warfare.

It is without doubt that Saudi Arabia has pursued a much more aggressive foreign policy since the accession king Salman Saud on January the 23rd.  Is this simply a coincidence of timing or do we have a much more adventurist king now in charge of the Arab world’s strongest state?

There is no doubting that at this time there are many geopolitical currents that are aligning to push Saudi Arabia into a more assertive role in its region. To begin with the price of oil has dropped and there are many analysts who would say that we are at the beginning of an energy revolution which will increasingly move the world away from using oil as a source of energy.  Many in Saudi Arabia therefore must be aware that their years of fantastic wealth are coming to an end and that they can no longer sit back and rely on their financial power to buy them out of any problems they may have.  Previously the Saudi’s have not had to engage in much political argy-bargy with their neighbours because their oil wealth ensured that the United States (US), the world’s pre-eminent military and political power, was always willing to defend their borders and forgive them any domestic actions which might have caused them international problems either with their neighbours or other nations. Right now, however, one very clear sign that Saudi Arabia is quickly becoming less important to the US is the fact that the US appears to be on the verge of ending its decades-long hostility to Iran, Saudia Arabia’s main regional rival.  Indeed, no clearer sign that the tides are turning is needed, however, there have been many other currents and events that seem be pushing the Saudi’s toward a more interventionist foreign policy. One might say that the Arab Spring and the vast instability it has brought to the Arab world, particularly including the Islamic State on Saudi Arabia’s northern border, signals to the Saudi royalty that just sitting back and allowing events to take their course may not be a wise choice.  And then there is the fact of the civil war in Yemen, which is happening now and appeared to be on the verge of being won by forces antagonistic to the Saudi’s.  This also presented the Saudi’s with the possibility of several undesirable outcomes if they did not become actively involved to try and shape events more to their liking.

So, it cannot be denied that there is a coincidence, or convergence, of forces at the moment that are pushing Saudi Arabia towards a more interventionist foreign policy.  With their declining importance to the US it certainly behoves Saudi Arabia right now to show the neighbours that they have their own weight to throw around and that even without US backing they are a force to be reckoned with. And these changed circumstances appear not to have come as a complete shock to Riyadh because there are certainly signs that the Saudi’s have in recent years been quietly preparing for a less secure place in the world.  Their current spending on defence, for example, is the fourth largest in the world, ahead of such traditional powers as France and the United Kingdom and behind only the US, China and Russia.  This certainly suggests that the Saudi’s have decided to convert their financial power into military power whilst they still can.

It is certainly the case that Saudi Arabia is surrounded by forces pushing it to become more interventionist within its region, but all the same it is fair to say that Salman is a king who is willing to take bold actions.  In everyday life most people are surrounded by opportunities, some take them others don’t.  The fact that since the accession of Salman Saudi Arabia has taken some very bold moves and made significant demonstrations of its power within the region do tell us that we are dealing with a leader who is prepared to take such actions and that alone is a significant fact.

Keep an eye out for ‘A Brave King – Part Two – Speculation’